Modeling the Effects of Greenbelts at the Urban-Rural Fringe

We present and evaluate an agent based model (ABM) of land use change at the rural-urban fringe, comparing its performance to a mathematical model of the same process. Our simplified model was developed in Swarm using agents with heterogeneous preferences and a landscape with heterogeneous properties. The context of this work is a larger project that includes surveys of the preferences of residents and data on historical patterns of development. Our broader goal is to use the model to evaluate the ecological effects of alternative policies and designs. We begin by evaluating the influence of a greenbelt, which is located next to a developing area and in which no development is permitted. We present results of a mathematical model that illustrates the necessary trade-off between greenbelt placement and greenbelt width on its effectiveness at delaying development beyond. Experiments run with the ABM are validated by the mathematical model and illustrate analyses that can be performed by extending to two-dimensions, variable agent preferences, and multiple, and ultimately realistic, patterns of landscape variability.